Status of Trade Deals Between the U.S. and African Nations

While headlines are dominated by deals with the EU, Japan, and others, Africa’s position in U.S. tariff talks remains precarious. The continent lacks leverage as most of its mineral wealth is stuck in the ground or tied-up by Chinese miners and offtake agreements. Countries reliant on basic manufacturing and raw exports are most exposed. BRICS-aligned nations are expected to fare the worst; those with closer U.S. ties may be rewarded with better outcomes.

SOUTH AFRICA

Africa’s largest non-oil exporter to the U.S. faces a 30% tariff from August 1st on key good: vehicles, auto parts, steel, aluminum, citrus, and wine. These are all sectors the U.S. wants to onshore or receive from allies. As a BRICS member, South Africa also risks an additional 10% penalty under Trump’s "strategic adversaries" clause.

In May, President Ramaphosa pitched a deal: guaranteed U.S. natural gas purchases for 10 years in exchange for continued duty-free access for 40,000 vehicles and over 500 million kilograms of steel and aluminum annually. No formal talks followed, and political relations remain strained.

Platinum group metals, gold, manganese, and chrome are exempt from tariffs, protecting U.S.-aligned firms like Anglo American Platinum. Iron ore and diamonds are set for the full tariff.

ZIMBABWE

On April 6, just 4 days after Trump’s “liberation day” announcement, Zimbabwe scrapped all tariffs on U.S. goods. The “goodwill gesture” seems savvy in hindsight, and Zimbabwe remains the only African country to publicly and preemptively adjust its tariff regime voluntarily and without delay. It faces 18% tariffs, far lower than others in the region, and is lobbying for deeper concessions.

Zimbabwe exported $119 million worth of goods to the United States in 2023, mainly ferroalloys ($62.7 million), raw tobacco ($26 million), and raw sugar ($14.5 million), official data shows. This accounted for less than 2% of Zimbabwe's exports in 2023, much more was exported to South Africa (34-38%), the UAE (28-30%), and China (8-10%). Most of those exports were gold and raw minerals, the U.S. is the largest purchaser of Zimbabwe tobacco and raw sugar.

WEST AFRICA

The July 9 White House meeting with leaders from Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, and Senegal produced quiet wins. These nations secured full or partial exemptions based on demonstrable cooperation with U.S. economic and security priorities.

Nigeria, by contrast, looks set to face the full 14% tariff and likely the additional 10% strategic penalty. Its pivot toward BRICS, state-level oil deals with China, and growing political divergence from Washington have eroded its position. While the U.S. is no longer a major crude buyer, it remains an important strategic market for Nigeria's non-oil diversification efforts. Sectors such as cocoa, shea butter, sesame seeds, hibiscus, cashew nuts, and leather have seen targeted support from government and the investor community. Politically, it signals Nigeria’s growing estrangement from U.S. priorities.

EAST AFRICA

Textiles are the story in this region. Kenya exported $603 million in apparel to the U.S. in 2022, nearly 70% of its textile output, and is negotiating for a modest 10% tariff ceiling. Strong signals from USTR suggest a carve-out is likely, helped by rising costs in Asia and Washington’s desire to shift textile supply chains away from China (30% tariff as of now), Vietnam (20%), and Bangladesh (35%).

East Africa could emerge as one of the net winners on the continent from this tariff reset, with low-cost apparel as its wedge into U.S. reshoring strategies. Kenya's heavy reliance on free access to the U.S. market through AGOA, and the apparel sector, make it highly vulnerable to tariff shifts.

NORTH AFRICA

Morocco is largely shielded from tariff fallout thanks to its longstanding free trade agreement with Washington and deepening ties across autos, aerospace, and fertilizer supply chains. Egypt, though not formally in an FTA, is leveraging its security alignment and fertilizer exports to secure partial exemptions, likely capping at 15–18%. Tunisia is quietly shifting its textile exports toward U.S. buyers and is lobbying for inclusion in an East Africa-style carve-out.

OTHER AFRICAN NATIONS

Lesotho was hit with a steep 50% reciprocal tariff in April 2025, the highest rate applied to any African country. The country’s textile sector, which accounts for approximately 20% of GDP and employs 30,000–40,000 workers, effectively collapsed as U.S. brands canceled orders. In response, Lesotho declared a two‑year national state of disaster on July 10 due to rising unemployment and economic instability.

Ghana, while maintaining steady diplomatic ties, has yet to secure any exemptions but could benefit from alignment with U.S. regional security goals. Meanwhile, Zambia, Angola, and the DRC have seen little engagement from Washington, and no clear tariff pathways have been offered. Their heavy reliance on mineral exports, largely destined for China or governed by long-term offtake deals, limits their leverage.